Amcor Ltd (AMC.AX) shares have seen increased volatility of late and the Aroon Oscillator is showing signs of a continued downtrend with a negative reading that is gaining momentum. The Aroon Oscillator was developed by Tushar Chande to highlight the start of a new trend and to measure trend strength. Chande first described the indicator in the September 1995 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine. The Aroon indicator system consists of three lines: Aroon Up, Aroon Down, and the Aroon Oscillator which reflects the difference between the two. “Aroon” is a Sanskrit word meaning “dawn’s early light”. The Aroon indicator is derived from two lines, Aroon Up and Aroon Down. Both lines run in a marked range between 0-100 to help define a currency pair’s strength or weakness. The Aroon Down is depicted as a green line and as its name suggests helps track price in a downtrend. Aroon Up is depicted as a red line and measures the strength of an uptrend. Traders will watch both lines as they oscillate between 0-100 and change their market preference as one line crosses above the other. If Aroon Down is above Aroon Up the trend is considered down with price expected to go lower.
Traders often prefer to focus on stocks that are higher in volatility. Higher volatility brings more opportunity for quick profits, but it can also bring quick losses. Traders will typically try to understand recent stock activity in order to make the most out of the price action. Seeing how a certain stock has traded previously may allow traders to project which way shares will move in the near future. It is highly important for active traders to know the risk involved with trying to capitalize on shorter-term price movements. Adept traders are generally able to focus on the bigger picture and not let one or two bad trades get them down. Developing confidence to trade in the stock market may take substantial time and effort. Defining long term and short term goals to help keep the focus intact may help traders secure profits.
Investors and Traders using technical analysis to review stocks may be focusing on the ATR or Average True Range. Currently, Amcor Ltd (AMC.AX) has a 14-day ATR of 0.28. The Average True Range is an investor tool used to measure stock volatility. The ATR is not used to figure out price direction, just to measure volatility. The ATR is an indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder has developed multiple indicators that are still quite popular in today’s investing landscape. The general interpretation of the ATR is the higher the ATR value, the higher the volatility.
Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 34.43, the 7-day stands at 29.66, and the 3-day is sitting at 14.87. The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a commonly used technical momentum indicator that compares price movement over time. The RSI was created by J. Welles Wilder who was striving to measure whether or not a stock was overbought or oversold. The RSI may be useful for spotting abnormal price activity and volatility. The RSI oscillates on a scale from 0 to 100. The normal reading of a stock will fall in the range of 30 to 70. A reading over 70 would indicate that the stock is overbought, and possibly overvalued. A reading under 30 may indicate that the stock is oversold, and possibly undervalued.
Another technical indicator that may be a powerful resource for determining trend strength is the Average Directional Index or ADX. The ADX was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s and it has stood the test of time. The ADX is typically used in conjunction with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to help spot trend direction as well as trend strength. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Amcor Ltd (AMC.AX) is noted at 18.73. Many technical analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal.
The Williams Percent Range or Williams %R is another technical indicator worth taking a look at. Amcor Ltd (AMC.AX) currently has a 14 day Williams %R of -94.53. The Williams %R fluctuates between 0 and -100 measuring whether a security is overbought or oversold. The Williams %R is similar to the Stochastic Oscillator except it is plotted upside-down. Levels above -20 may indicate the stock may be considered is overbought. If the indicator travels under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold. Chart analysts may also use the indicator to project possible price reversals and to define trends.
Amcor Ltd (AMC.AX) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -145.44. Active investors may choose to use this technical indicator as a stock evaluation tool. Used as a coincident indicator, the CCI reading above +100 would reflect strong price action which may signal an uptrend. On the flip side, a reading below -100 may signal a downtrend reflecting weak price action. Using the CCI as a leading indicator, technical analysts may use a +100 reading as an overbought signal and a -100 reading as an oversold indicator, suggesting a trend reversal.
Investors may be watching the ebb and flow of the current market environment and be wondering what the next few months have in store. They may be deciding whether now is a good time to sell off some first half winners or hold on for further gains. This can be one of the toughest decisions that an investor has to make. Just because a stock has been steadily heading higher for an extended period of time doesn’t necessarily mean that it will continue to do so. Building the confidence to make the tough portfolio decisions may take some time and a few good trades under the belt. New investors may be prone to get discouraged after a few sour trades in a row. Anyone who wants to succeed in the stock market knows that there is no substitute for research and hard work. Being able to bounce back and learn from mistakes may help the investor stay in the game and get back on the road to healthy profits.
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